By: John ShafferFriday February 5, 2010
President Obama deserves credit for making an appearance before the Republican conference in Baltimore, and taking some questions from Republican members of Congress. He hasn't changed his direction post-Scott Brown's election, but he has begun to shift its packaging. The President's participation is refreshing and positive, and after a year of accusing the Republicans of offering nothing but "no," it was nice to have the President acknowledge that the GOP was in fact offering ideas and proposals. It was nice to have the President and the Republicans treat each other with respect and civility. Will the good feelings result in progress on legislation?
Probably not - for the Republicans are sure that the President's proposals are not what the country needs; and the President is equally sure that his path offers the only way out. In light of the town halls and tea parties, the polls and the elections in Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts, it would be incomprehensible for the GOP to abandon those things that have led to its resurgence, and the President himself still retains much of his popularity and wants to remain true to what impelled him to the White House. A compromise on principles is not likely to be forthcoming, but the parties could agree on "non-controversial" items or proposals.
The President won't make major shifts - just as the Republicans won't turn into Democrats, the Democrats won't turn into Republicans. However, right now the momentum is against the President. Not only the three elections above, but also polls in many Senate races show the Democrats in trouble, at least for the time being. A year ago, if a pundit had said that Democrat Senate seats in Delaware, Illinois, New York, Connecticut, and California would be "in play," his pundit status would have been revoked. Yet, that is the situation today; and seats in Nevada, Arkansas and Louisiana (plus Senator Nelson's seat in Nebraska in 2012) are in deep jeopardy; the seat in Massachusetts is already lost and a seat in North Dakota is now seen as a sure thing pickup for the Republicans. Similar projections are being made for House races. It is a long time until November, and the President could regain his momentum, the Republicans could squander their advantage or grow dangerously overconfident, or outside events could re-write the script for everyone, but just as the landscape in 2008 favored the Democrats, the 2010 races (right now) are favoring the Republicans.
Not only that, but some Democrats in Congress are doing something else unthinkable a year ago, that is, publicly oppose the President on important issues, including trying the terrorists in New York City (even Senator Chuck Schumer has jumped on that bandwagon). So far that opposition is on security or anti-terrorism issues, but if the pressure continues to build, it could also happen on taxes, spending and deficit issues as well.
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